Rexburg, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

774
FXUS65 KPIH 071732
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1132 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy Today With Storms North and East

- Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today Due to Wind & Humidity

- Much Cooler Temperatures To Round Out the Week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

We are looking at some virga this morning across portions of
central and eastern Idaho. So far nothing significant in terms
of gusty winds from that. Later on today and through Friday
morning, showers and storms are forecast. The best chance will
be across the central mountains through the eastern highlands.
We should see a few evening/overnight storms east of I-15.
Strong outflow winds are NOT likely, based on the latest
forecast trends. That said, the overall pattern today will be on
the breezy side as a cold front sweeps across the area in
conjunction with a strong area of low pressure. Widespread gusts
of 25-35 mph are anticipated, with some spots across the INL
north toward Monida Pass should see some gusts pushing 40 mph.
Probability forecasts put a 15-30% chance of exceeding 45 mph,
which is the low-end threshold for a WIND ADVISORY. For now
though, we will not issue anything like that. It will be a bit
breezy Friday, but nowhere near what we should see today. The
most noticeable thing tomorrow will be cooler temperatures.
Many of us will NOT make it above 80 degrees. Lows tonight and
Friday night in the typical colder spots will drop below
freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

We are expecting dry, storm-free conditions until the middle of
next week. We do warm back up, BUT it will not be at a rapid
pace. Northerly flow initially will help that out, with 90s not
returning until Tuesday...potentially Monday at the earliest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Biggest impact today will be breezy winds gusting to around 20 to 30
kts at all sites this afternoon, but overall VFR conditions are
expected through this TAF period. The stronger winds today will
be at IDA, DIJ, and PIH. As a cold front makes its way through
the area this evening/tonight, there is about a 20 to 30 percent
chance of an isolated shower or storm near DIJ at the cold
front moves through, so will continue with the PROB30 there.
There is about a 10 percent chance near IDA, so will leave out
PROB30 there for now, but it will be something to watch this
evening. Winds will diminish a bit overnight, but 20 kt gusts
will continue tonight with 20 to 25 kt gusts expected Friday
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

 dry cold front sweeping through southern Idaho will push wind
speeds up while the afternoon humidity only increases slightly. It
appears as though all of Fire Weather Forecast Zone (FWFZ) 413, and
solid portions of FWFZs 410 and 427 will be subject to the same dry
and windy conditions. With the front sweeping out of the north and
west, the moisture will rise first in the Salmon-Challis NF and the
Twin Falls District. By late afternoon, FWFZ 427 should have
humidity high enough to no longer be hazardous. For the Eastern
Idaho Dispatch area, it will take until early evening for the
humidity to rise. The higher wind gust threshold for FWFZ 410 means
that most of the affected area in that zone will be the higher
elevations that are west of the Snake River.

Yesterday was the peak in temperatures this week. The cool-down
partially starts today, with cool air continuing to funnel in during
the overnight hours. This will lead to the coolest temperatures
occurring Fri. By Sat, the weather is back on a warming and drying
trend, but it will not be until Mon or Tue that afternoon highs are
hot enough to bring back critical fire weather conditions.

The wind will slightly decrease for Fri, slacken over the weekend
some more, then become gusty again Mon afternoon and especially
Tue/Wed time period, when the next upper level trough approaches Tue
afternoon/Tue night.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-413.
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for IDZ427.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...Messick